国家气象中心T213L31数值预报运行监控方案及预报效果评估

T213L31系统是我国新一代中期数值预报业务系统，该文介绍了该系统的实时业务运行流程，着重阐述了实时运行监控方法的设计和实施。通过对整个运行流程的解析、运行相关信息和异常事件的说明以及功能的介绍，使读者可以对T213L31运行监控和维护方法有一个较完整的认识。文章还对T213L31系统准业务和业务运行期间的预报效果进行了较为全面的检验与评估，结果显示:T213系统较国家气象中心的原数值预报业务系统T106L19的预报效果有了明显改进，可用预报时效延长了约1天。但与世界领先的ECMWF的中期数值预报产品相比还存在一定差距，特别是中期时效的预报差距比较明显，还有待于进一步的改进和提高。

T213L31 Operation Scheme and Forecast Effect Evaluation in National Meteorological Center of China

T213L31 is the new medium-range numerical weather forecast operational system in China. The operational suite of T213L31 was introduced. It elaborated the scheme that how to monitor the real time system. The operations analysis of T213L31 entire sequence and the introduction of functions, interruption events and related running information make readers have a more complete knowledge of T213L31 in operation in National Meteorological Center of China.The forecasting effect of T213L31 after comprehensive verifications during quasi-operation and operation in NMC was evaluated. The result shows that forecasting effect of the T213L31 operational system has an obvious improvement than the original operational system T106L19 in NMC. The valid forecast day was prolonged about 1 day. But comparing with ECMWF forecast, there is still a certain gap, especially in the valid forecast day of medium-range weather forecast. It will be improved and developed further in the future.