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A three-level framework for multi-risk assessment |
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| Authors: | Zhongqiang Liu Farrokh Nadim Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal Arnaud Mignan Kevin Fleming Byron Quan Luna |
| Institution: | 1. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), Oslo, Norway zhongqiang.liu@ngi.no;3. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), Oslo, Norway;4. Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), Naples, Italy;5. Institute of Geophysics, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETHZ), Zurich, Switzerland;6. Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany;7. DNV GL, H?vik, Norway |
| Abstract: | The effective management of the risks posed by natural and man-made hazards requires all relevant threats and their interactions to be considered. This paper proposes a three-level framework for multi-risk assessment that accounts for possible hazard and risk interactions. The first level is a flow chart that guides the user in deciding whether a multi-hazard and risk approach is required. The second level is a semi-quantitative approach to explore if a more detailed, quantitative assessment is needed. The third level is a detailed quantitative multi-risk analysis based on Bayesian networks. Examples that demonstrate the application of the method are presented. |
| Keywords: | multi-risk cascading hazards time-variant vulnerability Bayesian network |