Reservoir Characterization of McMurray Formation by 2D Geostatistical Modeling |
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Authors: | Weishan Ren Jason A Mclennan Oy Leuangthong Clayton V Deutsch |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, 3-133 Markin/CNRF NREF Building, Edmonton Alberta, T6G ZWZ, Canada |
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Abstract: | There is a need to estimate reserve uncertainty for large lease areas. Detailed 3D models of heterogeneity are not necessarily
required, but there is a need to integrate all available data into an in-situ reserve estimate with uncertainty. A 2D mapping
approach is presented to appraise reserves accounting for multiple variables, multiple data sources, and uncertainty. The
approach can be considered in three primary steps: (1) Bayesian updating is used to determine local distributions of uncertainty
for each primary variable while integrating multiple secondary information, (2) matrix simulation is employed to jointly and
simultaneously simulate multiple collocated variables to determine a derived variable such as OOIP, and (3) probability field
simulation then is applied to permit joint simulation of multiple locations. This methodology permits local and global uncertainty
assessment while integrating multiple sources of information. An application to the McMurray Formation in Alberta, Canada
is demonstrated. |
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Keywords: | 2D modeling data integration Bayesian updating resources estimation uncertainty assessment |
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