| 年际气候变化的一种概率预测模式及其试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 金莲姬,丁裕国.年际气候变化的一种概率预测模式及其试验[J].气象科学,1996,16(2):130-134. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金莲姬 丁裕国 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京气象学院!南京210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局“八五”重点项目，“短期气候预测理论与方法”基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在Ｂａｓｓｅｔｔ概率预报模式基础上，进一步推广试验，提出一种气候预测概率模式。这种以预报未来气候取值的概率分布为目标从而判断性地作出预报决策的方法，可使传统预报的不确定性加以定量化。大量数据试验表明，这种新型的概率预测具有相当高的准确度，并适于业务应用。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候预测 概率模式 气候变化 年际变化 |
PROBABILITY FORECAST MODEL FOR INTERANNUAL CLIMATIC CHANGE AND its EXPERIMENTS |
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| Jin Lianji,Ding Yuguo.PROBABILITY FORECAST MODEL FOR INTERANNUAL CLIMATIC CHANGE AND its EXPERIMENTS[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,1996,16(2):130-134. |
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| Authors: | Jin Lianji Ding Yuguo |
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| Abstract: | A probability forecast model is presented which is extensive model based on the probability model proposed by Bassett (1992). Because the model aims at predicting the probability distribution function of future climatic value and its forecast decision is a discriminative,the indeterminacy of traditlonal forecast can be replaced by quantization by means of the model,According to a large number of numerical expriments, this new forecast method possesses very high accuracy and can be used in weather or climatic operation. |
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| Keywords: | climatic forecast probability model |
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