| 水文水资源系统贝叶斯分析现状与前景 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄传军,丁晶.水文水资源系统贝叶斯分析现状与前景[J].水科学进展,1994,5(3):242-247. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄传军 丁晶 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川联合大学水利系 成都610065 |
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| 摘 要： | 简介了贝叶斯分析的基本原理,综述了它在水文水资源系统中考虑不确定性和风险的特点及其在径流预报、洪水分析与地区综合、水资源规划与管理等问题中的应用,并分析了其发展前景,着重指出将灰色先验分布、模糊似然函数在贝叶斯定理框架中耦合的综合途径.
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| 关 键 词： | 贝叶斯分析 不确定性 风险 灰色先验分布 模糊似然函数 灰色模糊后验分布 |
| 收稿时间： | 1994-03-16 |
Hydrology and Water Resources System Bayesian Analysisabout State-of-the-Art and Prospect |
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| Huang Weijun,Ding Jing.Hydrology and Water Resources System Bayesian Analysisabout State-of-the-Art and Prospect[J].Advances in Water Science,1994,5(3):242-247. |
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| Authors: | Huang Weijun Ding Jing |
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| Institution: | Sichuan Union University, chengdu, 610065 |
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| Abstract: | The paper introduces briefly the basic principles of Bayesian analysis, reviews its applications to uncertainty analysis and decision making in runoff forecasts, flood analysis and regionalization, water resources planning and management, etc., presents the recommendations for further researches, and provides emphatically the authors' combination approach that integrates grey prior distribution and fuzzy likelihood function into a Bayesian framework. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian analysis uncertainty risk grey prior distribution fuzzy likelihood function grey fuzzy posterior distribution |
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