南京和长三角地区CO_2与CH_4人为排放清单估算的不确定性分析

目前温室气体清单的编制主要基于IPCC方法,该方法用于特定城市或区域清单编制时可能会引起较大的不确定性,而目前对城市/区域尺度清单的不确定性的分析还存在很大的欠缺。本文通过南京市和长三角温室气体排放因子甄选,应用IPCC方法计算了2009年南京市和长三角的人为温室气体排放量,并以其为个例利用蒙特卡洛方法开展城市和区域尺度的温室气体人为排放清单不确定性的初步探究。研究结果表明:南京市CH4和CO2排放量的95%的概率分布范围分别为(1.08~1.86)×105t和(6.50~7.41)×107t,不确定性分别为-21.74%~34.78%和-7.01%~5.87%;长三角CH4和CO2排放量的95%的概率分布范围分别为(4.07~5.89)×106t和(1.62~1.82)×109t,不确定性分别为-15.60%~22.24%和-6.04%~5.34%。

Uncertainty analysis on the estimation of CO2 and CH4 emission inventory over Nanjing and Yangtze River Delta

The most authoritative method to calculate the greenhouse gas is the IPCC method, which may cause great uncertainty when applied in a particular city or region. There still exists the lack of uncertainty analysis on greenhouse gas inventory at city/regional scale. In this study, through identifying the emission factors from different sources, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over Nanjing city and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in 2009 were estimated by the IPCC method. Moreover, Nanjing and YRD inventory uncertainties were investigated by applying Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the anthropogenic CH₄ emission in Nanjing city ranged from 1.08×10⁵ t to 1.86×10⁵ t, and its uncertainty range was from -21.74% to 34.78%, while the CO₂ emission in Nanjing city ranged from 6.50×10⁷t to 7.41×10⁷t, and its uncertainty range was from-7.01% to 5.87%. In YRD region, the anthropogenic CH₄ emission ranged from 4.07×10⁶t to 5.89×10⁶t, and its uncertainty ranged from -15.60% to 22.24%, while the CO₂ emission ranged from 1.62×10⁹t to 1.82×10⁹t, and its uncertainty ranged from-6.04% to 5.34%.