A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIYUN RESERVOIR AREA，CHINA

Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982.Since that time ,so-cio-economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards.More and more attention from the public and government has been paid to the regional sustainable development.And an effect-tive planning for the local society management system is urgently desired.In this study,a regional sustainable develop-ment system dynamics model,named MiyunSD, is developed for supporting this planning task.MiyunSDconsists of dynamo-ic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system.Such models are capable of simulating the systemˊs behavior and predicting its developing situation of the future.For the study case,interact-tions among a number of system components within a time frame of fifteen years are examined dynamically.Three plan-ning altermatives are carefully considered.The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human active-ties will prevail in the entire planning horizon,and the other altermatives are based on previous and present planning stud-ies.The different alternatives will get different systemˊs environmental and socio-economic results.Through analyzing these dynamic results,local authorities may find an optimal way to realize the objectives that the regional environment will be well protected and at the same time the economy will be rapidly developed.

A system dynamics approach for sustainable development in the Miyun Reservoir Area, China

Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio-economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and more attention from the public and government has been paid to the regional sustainable development. And an effective planning for the local society management system is urgently desired. In this study, a regional sustainable development system dynamics model, named MiyunSD, is developed for supporting this planning task. MiyunSD consists of dynamic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system. Such models are capable of simulating the system’s behavior and predicting its developing situation of the future. For the study case, interactions among a number of system components within a time frame of fifteen years are examined dynamically. Three planning alternatives are carefully considered. The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human activities will prevail in the entire planning horizon, and the other alternatives are based on previous and present planning studies. The different alternatives will get different system’s environmental and socio-economic results. Through analyzing these dynamic results, local authorities may find an optimal way to realize the objectives that the regional environment will be well protected and at the same time the economy will be rapidly developed. Foundation item: Under the auspices of Science & Technology Commission of the Beijing Municipal People’s Government (No. 954901700) and a prediction system research for water quality of water resource in Beijing (RK99-21). Biography: SUN Yan-feng (1976 –), female, a native of Dalian, Liaoning Province, Master candidate of Peking University. Her research interests include environmental planning and management.