基于WEBGIS和实时降雨信息的区域地质灾害预警预报系统

基于WEBGIS平台，根据浙江省地质灾害大调查和补充调查资料，结合浙江省气象台提供的雨季实时降雨量与降雨量预测信息，建立了浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报系统。该系统目的在于：(1)建立浙江省突发性地质灾害信息库管理系统，实现对突发性地质灾害点分布和灾情信息的图形和数据一体化管理；(2)建立基于网络或其它通讯方式的滑坡(泥石流)灾害实时预警预报系统，实现与气象部门的连接，根据雨季的实时降雨预报和雨量资料，对浙江省滑坡(泥石流)灾害发生的空间范围进行实时发布。该系统核心是地质灾害预警预报模块，而模块是在区域地质灾害空间预测的基础上，结合实时的气象动态信息，研究在不同地质环境和不同气象条件下地质灾害体发生的规律，以提高区域地质灾害的预报精度。2004年的5月底到7月初的雨季中进行了试运行，该系统的预测情况与地质灾害的实际发生情况吻合性较好，表明预测方法和模型是基本可行的，且可操作性强。

A real-time regional geological hazard warning system in terms of WEBGIS and rainfall

Based on WEBGIS platform, the paper presents a real-time warning system for regional geological hazards in Zhejiang Province which is formulated with precipitation and its forecasting data and geological hazard investigation data. The system concludes four subsystems: subsystem of geological hazard management; subsystem of spatial prediction and time warning; subsystem of application in illustrative regions and subsystem of hazard reduction and prevention. The main purposes are (1) to establish systematic digital geological hazard management of individual and regional geological hazard information including data and maps according to the subsystem of geological hazard system, which can serves for decision-making in administrative ways; (2) to establish a real-time regional geological hazard warning system in Internet which is strongly connected with weather information center. The warning information of Zhejiang Province is released timely through Web net in raining seasons. The key part of this system is geological hazard prediction and warning modes, which is realized with the combination of regional geological hazard zonation and dynamic weather information. This system is run during the rain season from May to July of 2004. It is evaluated by in-site geological hazard inventory that practical geological hazards are mostly occurred within the warned high risk areas, which gives good confidences of the models and system operations.