2002年主汛期国家气象中心主客观降水预报对比检验

主要就2002年主汛期(6—8月)对国家气象中心预报员和数值预报(HLAFS、HLAFS0．25、T106和T213)产品进行全国和分区统计学检验和对比分析评价。对于全国降水平均检验结果而言，主客观降水预报TS评分均随降水量级的增大和预报时效的增加而下降。对于各级降水，预报员评分最高，其次是T213，HLAFS0．25列第三位(大暴雨除外)，T213较T106、HLAFS0．25较HLAFS0．5的降水预报都有明显的提高，说明改进的数值预报系统的降水预报水平有了较大的提高。与2001年汛期比较，预报员的小雨预报进步明显，暴雨、大暴雨的24小时预报也有一定的提高；T213则在中雨预报上有所改进，大雨及暴雨的24小时预报也有提高，其余预报的TS评分不及2001年。从分区的检验结果来看，南方各区的预报评分远高于北方各区的评分，预报员在长江中下游和华南地区的各级降水预报中具有明显的预报优势；北方各区的降水评分以T213预报略好，HLAFS及HLAFS0．25在西北地区东部暴雨预报中表现出色。

Verification of NMC Subjective and Objective PrecipitationPrediction during the Main Flood Season in 2002

The rainfall prediction products of forecaster and NWP (HLAFS, HLAFS 0 25,T106 and T213) of NMC are verified and assessed by statistical method for the main flood season of 2002,which include the prediction of whole country and eight areas. The results show that the TS score of forecaster prediction is the best from light rain to severe rain for the whole country. The second is T213.The third is HLAFS 0 25(except for severe storm).The rainfall forecast skill of T213 and HLAFS 0 25 is higher than one of T106 and HLAFS 0 5.It turns out that the forecast skill of advanced models have improved. The TS score of forecaster prediction of light rain in 2002 is higher than that in 2001. The TS score of forcaster torrential rain and heavy rain forecast also increases for 24 hours. The result of T213 is higher from moderate rain to heavy rain than that in 2001.The other results is same or less than that in 2001. The verification for the eight areas shows both the subjective and objective prediction in the south of China are better than those in the north of China for the moderate rain and light rain. The prediction of forecaster is much better than NWP in the south of China for heavy rain and torrential rain. Nevertheless, T213 is better than the others for the North. The torrential rain prediction of HLAFS and HLAFS 0 25 is super than others in Northwest.