海港水位频率的组合计算

本文提出的海港水位及其频率的组合计算,重点在热带气旋增水与天文潮的组合,将增水从历年实测的热带气旋影响下的水位中分离出来,并分析其频率分布,再同具有确定比率的天文潮位组合,求得组合后水位的频率,并且结合实例说明所求得的结果较目前通常使用的年最高水位抽样组成系列进行计算的结果为佳。

A COMBINATION METHOD PROBABILITY OF HARBOUR WATER LEVELS

In the east and south coast of chinese continent, usually, high water levels which consist of surge and astronomical tide are caused by tropical cyclones, which occur several times each yearfor a harbour in the coast. This paper studied probability distribution of a harbour's surges in the coast and shows that it agrees to gumbel distribution, according to that we obtained the probability of surge occurring in each particular height range. Then we calculated astronomical tide heights at every hour in the months with high occurrence of tropical cyclones, the percentage at each particular tide height range was obtained by computing the hours occurring in the range and dividing by the total number of hnurs.Finally, the various combinations of surge and astronomical tide, were computed with their probability and percentage in order to apply to design and plan for harbour engineering