| 基于数值预报产品的三明市汛期暴雨统计-动力预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋宗孝,沈永生,伍毓柏,刘玉,连东英,郑文楷.基于数值预报产品的三明市汛期暴雨统计-动力预报模型[J].气象科技,2011,39(5):558-561. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋宗孝 沈永生 伍毓柏 刘玉 连东英 郑文楷 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建省三明市气象局,三明,365000 |
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| 摘 要： | 三明市是福建省暴雨的频发区,数值模型通过多年的发展证实其对于提高暴雨等灾害性天气预报准确率起到了积极的作用.对2004-2008年5-6月逐日实况物理量与日雨量进行分析,分析表明:垂直速度场、水汽通量场、相对湿度场等13个物理量与三明汛期暴雨关系较好,通过对各种因子进行逐步回归分析,利用完全预报法建立三明市各县(市)的...
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 汛期 预报模型 数值预报产品 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/5/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/4/27 0:00:00 |
Heavy Rain Forecasting Models Based on Numerical Forecast Products during Flood Season for Sanming |
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| Jiang Zongxiao,Shen Yongsheng,Wu Yubo,Liu Yu,Lian Dongying and Zheng Wenkai.Heavy Rain Forecasting Models Based on Numerical Forecast Products during Flood Season for Sanming[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2011,39(5):558-561. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Zongxiao Shen Yongsheng Wu Yubo Liu Yu Lian Dongying and Zheng Wenkai |
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| Institution: | Sanming Meteorological Service, Fujian, Sanming 365000;Sanming Meteorological Service, Fujian, Sanming 365000;Sanming Meteorological Service, Fujian, Sanming 365000;Sanming Meteorological Service, Fujian, Sanming 365000;Sanming Meteorological Service, Fujian, Sanming 365000;Sanming Meteorological Service, Fujian, Sanming 365000 |
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| Abstract: | Heavy rainfall occurs frequently in Sanming of Fujian Province.Numerical models have played an active role in the improvement of the forecast accuracy of disastrous weather,such as heavy rainfall.An analysis is made of several physical quantities and daily rainfall in May and June from 2004 to 2008.The results indicate that 13 physical parameters,such as vertical velocity,vapor flux,relative humidity etc.,have clear correlations with heavy rainfall during the flooding season in Sanming.Through combining the... |
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| Keywords: | heavy rainfall flooding season forecasting model product numerical prediction |
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