夏季风期间青藏高原地形对降水的影响

利用高分辨率的3″数字高程模型资料,青藏高原东部102个常规气象观测站5~10月份的降水资料,采用多元逐步回归的方法,分类建立青藏高原雨季逐月降水量和6个地理、地形因子间关系模型,估算青藏高原地区雨季降水量空间分布。结果表明,以此方法建立的青藏高原降水量与诸因子间方程的相关性显著, 通过置信度0.95 的检验,相对误差在20%内;受季风影响,高原东部地区降水呈现出南北差异,降水高值中心也出现北进-东移-南撤的分布特征,反映了季风水汽输送规律;地理因子、高度及局地地形因子对降水的空间分布的影响有很大差异。

Influence of Terrain on Precipitation in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau During Summer Monsoon

By using high resolution 3″DEM data, precipitation data from May to October of 94 weather stations in the east of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, based on multivariable stepwise regression method, the estimating model of monthly precipitation are done combined with terrain factors. The result shows that the estimated results of precipitation are very well, relative errors are less than 20%, the correlative coefficient pass the test of 0.95. Under the influence of summer monsoon, the precipitation distribution is different in the north and the south region, and the high value center of precipitation is developed south, moved east and withdraw south, which reflects the transferring law of water-vapor of monsoon. The influence of terrains factors on precipitation is marketable.