海口湾沿岸风暴潮漫滩风险计算

引用《海港水文规范》(1998)中的方法计算海口湾的极值高水位,计算不同重现期的风暴潮与最高天文潮位的组合高水位;同时应用经检验为可靠的台风风暴潮数值模式,由气候学统计方法得出的可能最强台风的参数,按3种路径类型12条路径分别计算,并对产生可能最大风暴潮的假想台风路径根据移速变化分别计算,由此确定海口湾可能最大风暴潮(PMSS)。计算所得3组数据作为海口湾风暴潮漫滩风险值,1000a一遇的极值高水位、1000a一遇的风暴潮与最高天文潮的组合高水位及可能最大风暴潮与最高天文潮的组合高水位分别为546cm,634cm和977cm。

Calculation of Overland Risk of Storm Surge off the Haikou Bay

In this paper, firstly, we use the method provided by the Seaport Hydrology Standard ( 1998) calculate the extreme high level off the Haikou Bay; secondly, we calculate the combined high level of storm surges in different return periods with the highest astronomical tide level; thirdly, we apply the climatologic statistical method and analyze the parameter of probable max tropical cyclone (PMTC), use the typhoon storm surge numerical model which has been validated credible to calculate the probable max storm surge (PMSS) which is caused by 12 tracts of PMTC. At the same time we consider the storm surge variety caused by the various speeds of PMTC, to identify the PMSS off the Haikou Bay; The three group values will be used to analyze the storm surge's overland risk off the Haikou Bay.