基于EW-AHP-SIM评价体系的崩塌灾害易发性评价

本文以易发性评价为基础,从原生因素和诱发因素着手,构建“10因素”指标体系,通过比较目前多种评价模型,建立了EW-AHP-SIM崩塌评价体系,对西南某公路沿线6个隧道进出口进行了崩塌易发性评价。研究表明:熵权法(EW)、层次分析法(AHP)和综合指数(SIM)耦合形式,弥补了熵权法采集数据的不准确和层次分析法的人为主观性,科学合理地确定崩塌影响因子的权重。坡形S3、岩性S4、出露结构面S5、距断裂距离S6和人类活动S10综合权重值相对较高,介于0.102~0.191间,为敏感因子,植被覆盖率S8和年平均降雨量S7综合权重值相对较低,为非敏感因子。基于EW-AHP-SIM评价体系,得到6个低风险区、3个中风险区、3个高风险区,与研究区现场实际情况相一致,可为崩塌地质灾害的预测和危岩落石风险评价提供参考价值。

Evaluation of Collapse Disaster Vulnerability Based on EWAHPSIM Evaluation System

In view of the imperfection of current collapse vulnerability evaluation system, based on the vulnerability evaluation, the "10 factors" index system has been constructed from the two aspects of primary factors and induced factors, and the EWAHPSIM collapse vulnerability evaluation system has been established by comparing current multiple evaluation models, and the collapse vulnerability evaluation has been conducted for 6 tunnel entrances and exits along a highway in the southwest. It is showed that the coupling form of entropy weight method (EW), analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and comprehensive index (SIM) makes up for the inaccuracy of the data collected by entropy weight method and the artificial subjectivity of analytic hierarchy process, and other shortcomings of their respective methods, so as to determine the weight of collapse impact factors more scientifically and reasonably. It can be seen from the size of index weight that the comprehensive weight values of slope shape S3, lithology S4, exposed structural plane S5, distance from fault S6 and human activity S10 are relatively high, ranging from 0.093 to 0.271, which are sensitive factors, while the comprehensive weight values of slope height S1 and vegetation coverage S8 are relatively low, which are nonsensitive factors. Based on the EWAHPSIM evaluation system, 6 low risk areas, 3 medium risk areas and 3 high risk areas have been obtained, which are consistent with the actual situation of the study area. It can provide some references for the prediction of collapse geological hazards and risk assessment of dangerous rock and rockfall.