贵州地区夏季降水特征及其预测方法

利用贵州地区52个测站1961～2000年夏季(6～8月)降水资料，采用突变分析、小波分析等方法，对贵州夏季降水的时间变化特征进行了诊断分析，并运用均生函数对贵州夏季降水建立预测模型，进行试报和预报检验。结果表明：贵州地区近40a来夏季降水呈上升趋势，具有明显的年际变化特征；夏季降水比较明显的突变点出现在1971年和1994年(没有通过显著水平a=0．05的信度检验)，其1971年后到1994年前降水为减少趋势，1994年后降水开始增多；夏季降水在年际尺度上主要存在显著的准2a、准4a和4～6a、8～10a周期振荡；均生函数对夏季降水预测效果较好，尤其对极值的预测，效果更加明显。

Features and Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Guizhou Province

Based on the monthly precipitation data of 52 observational stations in June, July and August from 1961 to 2000, the features of summer precipitation in Guizhou Province were analyzed by means of abrupt change analysis and wavelet analysis techniques. A prediction model was developed and the prediction experiment of summer precipitation in Guizhou Province was conducted with the mean generating function. The results indicate that summer precipitation in Guizhou increased obviously in recent 40 years and its inter-annual variation was remarkable with varying periods: 8-10, 4-6, 4, and 2 years. Abrupt change mainly occurred in 1971 and 1994, and precipitation began to decrease from l994. The result shows that the mean generating function has good prediction capability for short-range climate changes, especially for extreme precipitation events.