| 由三性法讨论2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7级地震的中期预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭增建,郭安宁.由三性法讨论2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7级地震的中期预测[J].西北地震学报,2017,39(4):797-798. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭增建 郭安宁 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局兰州地震研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000,中国地震局兰州地震研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000 |
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| 摘 要： | 九寨沟和其周围地区20世纪共发生3次强震，它们在时间轴上符合以42年为周期的三性分布。从1976年松潘地震起算跨越此周期可预测2018年再次发生强震。该地区实际地震前一周期比42年多一年，则从1976年松潘地震起算向新的周期减一年，可预测2017年再次发生强震。
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| 关 键 词： | 九寨沟 7级地震 三性法 中期预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/8/14 0:00:00 |
Discussion on the Medium-term Prediction of Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan MS 7.0 Earthquake on August 8, 2017, by Means of Triplet Method |
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| GUO Zeng-jian and GUO An-ning.Discussion on the Medium-term Prediction of Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan MS 7.0 Earthquake on August 8, 2017, by Means of Triplet Method[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2017,39(4):797-798. |
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| Authors: | GUO Zeng-jian and GUO An-ning |
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| Institution: | Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, CEA, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China and Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, CEA, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China |
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| Abstract: | Three strong earthquakes, which occurred in the Jiuzhaigou county and its adjacent areas in the 20th century, fit to the temporal triplet distribution with period of 40 years. It is predicted that a strong earthquake will occur again in 2018 based on the period with the 1976 Songpan earthquake as the starting point. In fact, the previous period of actual earthquakes in this area is 43 years, one more than 42 years, so the new period should subtract one year, which means the predicted strong earthquake should occur in 2017. |
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| Keywords: | Jiuzhaigou MS 7 0 earthquake triplet method medium-term prediction |
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