Stability of submarine slopes in the northern South China Sea: a numerical approach

Submarine landslides occur frequently on most continental margins. They are effective mechanisms of sediment transfer but also a geological hazard to seafloor installations. In this paper, submarine slope stability is evaluated using a 2D limit equilibrium method. Considerations of slope, sediment, and triggering force on the factor of safety (FOS) were calculated in drained and undrained (Φ=0) cases. Results show that submarine slopes are stable when the slope is <16° under static conditions and without a weak interlayer. With a weak interlayer, slopes are stable at <18° in the drained case and at <9° in the undrained case. Earthquake loading can drastically reduce the shear strength of sediment with increased pore water pressure. The slope became unstable at >13° with earthquake peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.5 g; whereas with a weak layer, a PGA of 0.2 g could trigger instability at slopes >10°, and >3° for PGA of 0.5 g. The northern slope of the South China Sea is geomorphologically stable under static conditions. However, because of the possibility of high PGA at the eastern margin of the South China Sea, submarine slides are likely on the Taiwan Bank slope and eastern part of the Dongsha slope. Therefore, submarine slides recognized in seismic profiles on the Taiwan Bank slope would be triggered by an earthquake, the most important factor for triggering submarine slides on the northern slope of the South China Sea. Considering the distribution of PGA, we consider the northern slope of the South China Sea to be stable, excluding the Taiwan Bank slope, which is tectonically active.