采用AHP方法的气象服务社会经济效益定量评估分析

评估选用社会调查资料中公众对评估指标的得票支持率初始化AHP模型准则层的底层指标权重系数,避免执行AHP方法中繁琐的多指标权重计算,然后以AHP模型为基准对气象服务产品的社会经济效益进行定量化评估.评估以"现有常规气象服务产品"及"FDP产品"为AHP方案层的备选方案,评估权重适当向体现奥运气象服务需求的指标项倾斜.评估结果表明FDP产品在满足现有用户气象服务及奥运气象服务需求上享有绝对的优势.研究得出:现有天气预报产品需要进一步提高预报结果的时间和空间分辨率;需要丰富FDP等短时临近预报产品的信息传递方式;需要提高信息传递的及时性,改进气象服务的质量.

Implement AHP to Evaluate Socioeconomic Benefit of Meteorological Service by Quantitative Analysis

A method to fill the weight coefficient of the index on cr iterion layer of the AHP model with voting by the public questionnaire is presen ted, and this could avoid complicated matrix calculating, purposed for the evaluating socioec onomic benefit of meteorological service with quantitative analysis. The evaluat ing model takes products of the routine meteorological service and that of the F orecasting Demonstration Projects (FDP) as candidate on the AHP scheme layer, and the weight coefficient is slightly apt to the requirement of the meteor ological service of Beijing 2008 OlympicGames. However, the result indicates that the FDP is much mo re satisfactory than the routine in the needs of the public and that of Olympic Game. It can be concluded that the spatial and temporal resolution of the presen t forecasting products should be promoted relatively according to the public's w ish, and it should enrich the way to transfer the information provided by short time forecasting products, enhance the timeliness of information transfer, and improve the meteorological service quality