云分析预报方法研究进展

云作为地球大气系统的重要组成部分,不仅影响着气候变化和天气系统的发展演变,还与航空活动密切相关,一直以来是空军和民航部门非常关注的气象要素之一。在云探测、资料同化和反演方法发展的基础上,从实际业务保障和数值模式发展需求出发,综述国内外云分析、预报方法和云分析预报系统开发的研究成果,分析各类方法的优势和不足,明确国内外研究的主要差距,并探讨国内未来研究的方向。云分析方法中,探空对云廓线识别较好,卫星可见光和红外资料在云顶信息反演方面优势明显,多普勒雷达能够获取对流层中层和底层的云信息,而毫米波雷达能够很好地反映云三维结构信息,发展潜力巨大。云预报方法中,传统的统计和诊断方法发展较为成熟,而考虑了大气温湿和云微物理状况的大气辐射传输模式正演模拟云顶亮温的方法是未来的发展趋势。加强云探测技术,综合利用云分析预报方法,借鉴国外先进云分析预报系统的设计理念,积极开发我国自主的云分析预报系统,推动天气预报、航空气象保障和数值预报模式的发展将会是我国云研究的重要方面。

Overview of Researches on Cloud Analysis and Prediction Methods

As an important role of the Earth-Atmosphere system, cloud not only affects the evolution of climate and weather system, but also is closely related to aviation activities. It has been regarded as one of the meteorological elements highly concerned by air force and civil aviation departments all the time. Based on the development of cloud detection, data assimilation and retrieval methods, from actual service assurance and development of numerical models, we made an overview of the study of cloud analysis methods, cloud prediction methods and system development of cloud analysis and prediction, analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of each method, determined the main differences at home and abroad, and discussed domestic research direction in the future. In cloud analysis methods, sounding is skilled in identification of cloud profile. Visible and infrared satellite data have obvious advantages on cloud-top retrieval. Doppler radar can get cloud information on middle and lower troposphere, and millimeter-wave radar well reflects three-dimensional structure of cloud with huge development potential. In cloud prediction methods, the development of traditional statistical and diagnostic method is relatively mature, while cloud-top brightness temperature simulated by atmosphere radiative transfer model, which considers moisture and temperature of atmosphere and cloud microphysics, will be the development tendency in the future. The enhancement of the cloud detection techniques, comprehensive utilization of cloud analysis and prediction methods, learning from foreign advanced concepts of cloud analysis and prediction system, active development of China’s own system, promotion of the development of weather forecast, aviation meteorological support and numerical prediction models are all areas of domestic cloud research in the future.