| 新疆北天山中长期地震活动形势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 苏乃秦,刘启泓,龙海英.新疆北天山中长期地震活动形势分析[J].内陆地震,2001,15(3):201-210. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苏乃秦 刘启泓 龙海英 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局“九五”重点项目 95 -0 4 -0 9-0 3 -0 4课题成果 |
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| 摘 要： | 在收集全天山尽可能完整的地震目录资料和进行较为科学的天山地震活动分区的基础上，按照从大区到小区、从整体到局部的层次性分析思路，分析了新疆北天山地震活动的阶段性及关联性特征，并进行了b值外推和应变能累积预测分析，估计了新疆北天山强震发生的累积概率和马尔柯夫概率，从而对新疆北天山未来3－10年的中长期地震活动形势提出了分析预测意见。
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| 关 键 词： | 新疆 中长期预测 地震活动形势 b值 应变能累积 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8956(2001)03-0201-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年4月17日 |
ANALYSIS ON MODERATE, LONG-TERM SEISMICITY TREND IN NORTH TIANSHAN, XINJIANG |
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| SU Nai qin,LIU Qi hong,LONG Hai ying.ANALYSIS ON MODERATE, LONG-TERM SEISMICITY TREND IN NORTH TIANSHAN, XINJIANG[J].Inland Earthquake,2001,15(3):201-210. |
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| Authors: | SU Nai qin LIU Qi hong LONG Hai ying |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the relatively integrated collection of earthquake catalogues in total Tianshan and the scientific zoning of seismicity in Tianshan, Xinjiang, the correlation of the seismicity in North Tianshan with that in total Tianshan and its every section were analyzed according to the thinking from large area to small one and from the total to the local. The strength and probability (cumulative probability and Markovia probability)of strong earthquakes occurring were estimated by means of b value extrapolation and accumulative strain energy estimation.Based on the result of the study, the moderate, long term seismic activity trend in North Tinashan in 3 10 years was made a prediction. |
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| Keywords: | North Tianshan in Xinjiang Moderate and long term prediction Seismic Trend |
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