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| 高速铁路沉降变形的组合预测方法 | |
| 引用本文： | 黄惠峰,张献州. 高速铁路沉降变形的组合预测方法[J]. 测绘工程, 2014, 23(9): 48-51 |
| 作者姓名： | 黄惠峰 张献州 |
| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学地球科学与环境工程学院,四川成都,610031 |
| 基金项目： | 铁道部科技研究开发计划项目，铁道部科技发展计划项目，中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 为实现各种预测模型的优势互补，提高沉降预测精度，分析单项沉降预测模型各自的特点，将组合预测方法应用到高速铁路沉降变形预测分析中；介绍组合预测基本方法和常用的定权方法，提出模型建立的步骤和具体原则，研究出一种变权最优预测的方法。通过工程实例验证表明，该组合方法预测精度较高，拟合能力更强，可作为高速铁路的沉降预测模型。 |
| 关 键 词： | 组合预测模型 高速铁路 沉降分析 加权组合 |
Application of combination forecasting method to the settlement of high-speed railway |
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| HUANG Hui-feng,ZHANG Xian-zhou. Application of combination forecasting method to the settlement of high-speed railway[J]. Engineering of Surveying and Mapping, 2014, 23(9): 48-51 | |
| Authors: | HUANG Hui-feng ZHANG Xian-zhou |
| Affiliation: | (School of Geoseiences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China) |
| Abstract: | The characteristics of single subsidence prediction model is analyzed in order to achieve complementary advantages of various forecasting models and improve the prediction accuracy of the settlement. A combined forecasting method is applied to the settlement prediction analysis of high-speed railway. A basic method with the commonly-used fixed weight combination forecast method is provided, together with the specific principles and an optimal prediction method of variable weight. The engineering practice shows that the method is of higher accuracy and stronger fitting, which can be used as high-speed railway subsidence prediction model. |
| Keywords: | combination forecast model high-speed railway settlement analysis weighted combination |
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