基于弹性脆弱性的环巢湖自行车赛风险辨识

为提高环巢湖自行车公开赛的气象保障服务能力。本研究基于2013-2016年环巢湖自行车赛举办期间收集到的问卷调查资料，总结归纳出自行车骑行比赛的气象适宜性指标，并从强化措施和规避措施两个方面出发，构建基于脆弱性指标体系的环巢湖自行车公开赛风险辨识概念模型，并利用巢湖国家基本气象站1957-2016年逐日气象观测资料对2017年环巢湖自行车赛做个例分析。研究结果表明：（1）2017年4月23日我市降水适宜性和温度适宜性概率普遍较高，分别为70%和39%，而相对湿度和风速适宜度概率略偏低，因此，相对湿度和湿度是制约运动员发挥的重要因子。（2）各参评因子在4月份均具有明显的震荡特征，降水和相对湿度在四月上旬适宜度较高，而日平均气温和风速呈现明显相反的趋势。（3）降水适宜度综合指数在4月份普遍高于风速、温度、湿度，表明四月份无降水的概率普遍较高；综合适宜度指数四月中下旬优于上旬，表明环巢湖赛事选择下旬举行最佳。（4）分析综合因子重现期发现，四月下旬重现期普遍短于上中旬。本研究结果可为环巢湖自行车公开赛的赛前安排、赛事评估等方面提供科学依据。

The Risk Identification of Chaohu Lake Rim Bicycle Race Based on Vulnerability Index System

In order to improve the meteorological supported service capability for cycling race in surrounding of Chaohu Lake, based on the questionnaires of Chaohu Lake rim bicycle race from 2013 to 2016, this study summarized the suitable meteorological indexes of bicycle race, and constructed the conceptual model for risk identification of Chaohu Lake rim bicycle race based on vulnerability index system from two aspects of reinforcement and avoidance. In addition, we made the case analysis based on Chaohu Lake rim bicycle race in 2017 using the daily meteorological data of Chaohu national basic weather station from 1957 to 2016 .The results showed that :(1) In April 23, 2017, the probabilities of precipitation suitability and temperature suitability were generally high, which were 70% and 39% respectively, while those of relative humidity suitability and wind speed suitability were relatively low. Relative humidity and wind speed were important restricting factors for athletes. (2) Evaluating factors of bicycle race in April showed obvious oscillation characteristics. The probabilities of precipitation suitability and relative humidity suitability were quite high in early April, while those of average temperature and wind speed showed obvious opposite trend.(3) The precipitation suitability index was generally higher than other evaluating factors in April, which mean the probability of precipitation in April was comparatively low. Comprehensive suitability in mid and late April was better than that in early April. The best time for Chaohu Lake rim bicycle race was late April. (4) Comprehensive factor recurrence period analysis revealed that recurrence period in late April was shorter than that in mid and early April. The study can provide scientific basis for pre-competition arrangement and evaluation of Chaohu Lake rim bicycle race.