Flows and sediment dynamics in the Ganga River under present and future climate scenarios |
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Authors: | Sana Khan Paul Whitehead Sananda Sarkar Li Jin Martyn N Futter |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, India;2. School of Geography &3. the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK;4. Department of Geology, SUNY at Cortland, Cortland, New York, USA;5. Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden |
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Abstract: | Identification of factors controlling sediment dynamics under natural flow regimes can establish a baseline for quantifying effects of present day hydrological alteration and future climate change on sediment delivery and associated flooding. The process-based INCA-Sediment model was used to simulate Ganga River sediment transport under baseline conditions and to quantify possible future changes using three contrasting climate scenarios. Construction of barrages and canals has significantly altered natural flow regimes, with profound consequences for sediment transport. Projected increases in future monsoonal precipitation will lead to higher peak flows, increasing flood frequency and greater water availability. Increased groundwater recharge during monsoon periods and greater rates of evaporation due to increased temperature complicate projections of water availability in non-monsoon periods. Rainfall and land surface interaction in high-relief areas drive uncertainties in Upper Ganga sediment loads. However, higher monsoonal peak flows will increase erosion and sediment delivery in western and lower reaches. |
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Keywords: | sediment modelling sediment management Ganga climate change tropical rivers process-based model |
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