1997年伽师地震临震预报的经验与启示

１９９７年１￣４月新疆伽师发生罕见的强震群活动。几个月内在十分狭小的区域内发生７次６级强震，是新疆几十年来从未遇到过的。概述了伽师地震３次准确和较为准确的临震预报；总结了地点已知的后续强震临震预报的科学和实践问题；论述了震例总结与现实预报的差异，以及地震孕育的复杂性和地震预报的现实做法。

THE EXPERIENCE AND REVELATION OF IMPENDING PREDICTION OF XINJIANG,JIASHI EARTHQUAKES IN 1997

From Jan.1997 to Apr.1997,a rare phenomenon of strong earthquake swarm occurred in Jiashi county of Xinjiang. 7 strong with M S 6 earthquakes occurred in a very narrow and small area within these months. This paper states the Jiashi earthquakes and its 3 times accurate or relatively accurate impending prediction. The followed Jiashi strong earthquakes in known place have several problems as follow : (1)the judgement of strong earthquake type;(2)the option of the index of impending prediction;(3)the overlap and detachment of followed strong earthquake sequences;(4)the judgement of seismic regime using basic science.Based on several successful impending predictions,theexperiences of our work are step by step and didn't delay any work.The suggestion of impending prediction about earthquake area was informed to the government.This paper states some revelations as follow: (1)the conflict and difference between seismic summary and prediction practice;(2)the importance and limitation of the experienced index;(3)the complexities of earthquake prediction practical methods.