The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems: Part III - Observation impact and observation sensitivity in the California Current System

The critical role played by observations during ocean data assimilation was explored when the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system was applied sequentially to the California Current circulation. The adjoint of the 4D-Var gain matrix was used to quantify the impact of individual observations and observation platforms on different aspects of the 4D-Var circulation estimates during both analysis and subsequent forecast cycles. In this study we focus on the alongshore and cross-shore transport of the California Current System associated with wind-induced coastal upwelling along the central California coast. The majority of the observations available during any given analysis cycle are from satellite platforms in the form of SST and SSH, and on average these data exert the largest controlling influence on the analysis increments and forecast skill of coastal transport. However, subsurface in situ observations from Argo floats, CTDs, XBTs and tagged marine mammals often have a considerable impact on analyses and forecasts of coastal transport, even though these observations represent a relatively small fraction of the available data at any particular time.During 4D-Var the observations are used to correct for uncertainties in the model control variables, namely the initial conditions, surface forcing, and open boundary conditions. It is found that correcting for uncertainties in both the initial conditions and surface forcing has the largest impact on the analysis increments in alongshore transport, while the cross-shore transport is controlled mainly by the surface forcing. The memory of the circulation associated with the control variable increments was also explored in relation to 7 day forecasts of the coastal circulation. Despite the importance of correcting for surface forcing uncertainties during analysis cycles, the coastal transport during forecast cycles initialized from the analyses has less memory of the surface forcing corrections, and is controlled primarily by the analysis initial conditions.Using the adjoint of the entire 4D-Var system we have also explored the sensitivity of the coastal transport to changes in the observations and the observation array. A single integration of the adjoint of 4D-Var can be used to predict the change that occurs when observations from different platforms are omitted from the 4D-Var analysis. Thus observing system experiments can be performed for each data assimilation cycle at a fraction of the computational cost that would be required to repeat the 4D-Var analyses when observations are withheld. This is the third part of a three part series describing the ROMS 4D-Var systems.