阿克苏河流域气候变化对潜在蒸散量影响分析

蒸散发是水文过程的关键环节，研究气候因子对潜在蒸散发的影响，有助于深入认识水文过程对气候变化的响应。本文基于阿克苏河流域1960-2007 年逐日气象资料和Penman-Monteith公式，估算并分析参考作物蒸散量(RET) 时空变化特征，并用多元回归方法定量区分气候因子变化对RET 变化的贡献率。研究发现流域RET 空间差异明显，东部平原区平均年RET 为1100mm左右，是西部山区的近2 倍；东南部绿洲区的RET显著减少，而西部变化复杂。RET变化趋势的季节差异也很显著，以夏季变幅最大，是年变化的主要贡献者。高海拔地区相对湿度对RET变化影响最大，其它区域的风速变化对RET变化的贡献率最高。库车和乌恰站的风速变化对RET变化的贡献率大于50%，是RET变化的主导因素。

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Reference Evapotranspiration in Aksu River Basin

Evapotranspiration is one of the key components of hydrological processes. Assessing the impact of climate factors on reference evapotranspiration (RET) is helpful in understanding the impact of climate change on hydrological processes. In this paper, based on the daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2007 within and around Aksu River basin, RET was estimated with the FAO Penman-Monteith Method. The temporal and spatial variations of PET were analyzed by using ARCGIS. Multiple Regression Analysis was employed to differentiate the effects of the variations of air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, vapor pressure and wind speed on PET. The results showed that RET in the eastern plain area of Aksu River Basin was about 1100 mm, which was nearly twice as much as that in the western mountain area.