| 动态相似方法在长江上游逐日降水预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈静.动态相似方法在长江上游逐日降水预报中的应用[J].气象,2000,26(6):40-43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈静 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都中心气象台,成都,610072 |
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| 摘 要： | 在考虑环流的动态演变特征在降水预报中重要性的基础上，设计了一种环流演变动态相似预报方法，在１０００ｈＰａ气压场、８５０ｈＰａ温度场、５００ｈＰａ高度场分别提取３个物理意义清晰、又具有立体性和多元性的相似因子，采用本文设计的二级相似标准，以ＥＣＭＷＦ数值预报产品作为预报资料与历史资料库进行滚动映射，寻找最优相似个例，制作长江上游降水面雨量的逐日滚动预报，效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 动态相似 二级标准 降水预报 长江上游 |
Application of a Dynamic Similarity Method to Precipitation Forecats in the Upper Reaches of the Changjiang River |
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| Chen Jing.Application of a Dynamic Similarity Method to Precipitation Forecats in the Upper Reaches of the Changjiang River[J].Meteorological Monthly,2000,26(6):40-43. |
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| Authors: | Chen Jing |
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| Abstract: | A dynamic similarity method based on the dynamic development of the atmospheric circulation was applied to the quantitative precipitation forecast.Three dimensional and pluralism features were collected.By two grades of similarity standard,the most similarity case by mapping the ECMWF products with the history data was found and applied to the quantitative precipitation forecast in the upper reaches of the Changjiang River.The method was proved effective. |
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| Keywords: | dynamic similarity two grades similarity standard precipitation forecast |
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