Evidence for the effect of sunspot activity on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation |
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| Institution: | 1. Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;3. Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;4. State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;1. Department of Physics, Shumen University, 9700 Shumen, Bulgaria;2. IRIDA Observatory, 67 Cherkovna Str., Sofia, Bulgaria;3. Institute of Astronomy and NAO, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 72 Tsarigradsko shossee blvd., 1784 Sofia, Bulgaria;1. Department of Astronomy, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China;2. Key Laboratory of Astroparticle Physics, Yunnan Province, Kunming 650091, China;3. School of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, Jinggangshan University, Jiangxi Province, Ji’an 343009, China |
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| Abstract: | The El Niño No. 3 area index (5°S～ 5°N, 150°W～ 90°W) and yearly sunspot number (SSN) from 1408 to 1978 are used to investigate the influence of solar activity on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), through periodicity analysis, cross wavelet transform (XWT), cross correlation and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) analyses. The solar activity period, the Hale period, and the Gleissberg period are determined in the El Niño index time series, but of weak statistical significance. Cross correlation analysis of the index with SSN, and that of its low-frequency components decomposed by EEMD clearly indicate that solar activity may take effect on the ENSO, and such an impact should undergo an accumulation procedure (phase delay). XWT also indicates the existence of the impact. It is found that the index is negatively correlated with SSN when SSN is large during a certain long-term interval, and positively when SSN is small. Strong El Niño is inferred to be taken place in decade(s) to come. |
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