A numerical case study of the passage of a cold surge across Taiwan

Summary A numerical study of a cold surge that occurred from 19–23 December 2001 was conducted to better understand the cold surge characteristics over the Taiwan area. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) nested Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) was used for this study. Simulation results demonstrated that the nested NCEP MSM captured salient features of the selected cold surge case. We demonstrated that the local minimum center of the time change of virtual potential temperature (dVPT) can serve as the location of severe weather of the cold surge for all Taiwan regions. Furthermore, thermodynamic equation analyses revealed that the leading edge of the cold surge was maintained primarily by meridian thermal advection, while diabatic heating, vertical and zonal thermal advections were less important. The cold surge flows were blocked and lifted by the Central Mountain Range (CMR) on its windward side, which increased the cold surge’s vertical extent upward and increased northwestward tilting in the vertical structure. The flow eventually ascended, switched direction toward Taiwan, and descended over its northwestern and eastern coasts. The physical and circulatory characteristics of the cold surge differed noticeably on both sides of Taiwan. The cold surge’s leading edge over the Taiwan Strait was northeast-southwest oriented and had evident wind shear; on the east side of the island, it was stronger in intensity and faster-moving than its counterpart on the west side. Sensitivity experiments revealed that the CMR’s trapping of cold surge flows on its windward side affected cold surge leading edge characteristics in the following five ways: (1) weakening its intensity over the ocean but enhancing it inland, (2) decreasing its southward speed, especially over the western low plains region, but increasing its movement on the east coast, (3) increasing its vertical altitude and narrowing the horizontal extent of its vertical tilting, (4) altering its upper vertical circulatory structure, and (5) trapping a V-shape density current and enhancing its intensity in connection with the land-sea contrast.