对永胜6级地震的预报及依据

2001年10月27日在云南永胜发生6.0级地震,震前四川省地震局有较准确的中期和短临预报,加强了川滇交界地区的地震监测预报工作,并且向四川省政府作了汇报,取得了明显的社会效益。经验性地震预报重视川滇菱形地块西界断裂带动态活动图像的分析,尤其对历史强震破裂空段附近出现的中小震活动带或新活跃区段的研究;同时,重视4级前震群、川滇交界地区地下水位、水温、形变观测异常的跟踪分析和震情预测。

Procedure and evidences on Yongshen M6.0 Earthquake Prediction

An M than6 0 earthquake hit Yongshen country, Yunnan Province, on 27 October 2001 Before this event, we made a middle- and short-term exact prediction According to the prediction reported to the Government of Sichuan Province, we strengthened the work of monitoring the dynamic abnormal and studied precursor observation data that come from the interested regions between Yunnan and Sichuan province At the same time, we report the seismic situation and earthquake prediction to the Government of Sichuan Province, and made an effective prediction for our society The major empirical method for this earthquake prediction is the image analyses of seismic activity along the main active faults within Yunnan and Sichuan regions We especially analyzed the seismic gaps where there are strong earthquakes in histories and present period the activities of the middle and small earthquakes formed a narrow belt We also studied the abnormal on the groundwater level, the spring water temperature and deformation abnormal that obtained from the seismic observing stations and the activities of small earthquakes with magnitude less than M 4 0 within the regions between Yunnan and Sichuan