2001-2015年中国出境旅游流位序规模演化特征

中国出境旅游规模在20世纪90年代中后期以来迅速扩大,并在不同目的地间表现出显著的不均衡分布特征。通过构建2001-2015年中国出境游客与目的地入境游客规模数据库,验证中国出境旅游流服从位序规模理论的假设,并将目的地吸纳中国游客规模与目的地接待游客总量的关系划分为5种耦合类型。结果表明：中国出境旅游流位序规模关系符合幂函数规律,并且向高位序目的地聚集程度不断增强;从2001年到2015年,绝对领先与绝对落后型的目的地占比均超过45%,亚太地区接待中国游客普遍处于领先地位,而欧美和中东地区接待中国游客大多处于落后地位;对于游客总规模较大的目的地,绝对落后型数量大于绝对领先型,而对于游客总规模较小的目的地,绝对领先型数量大于绝对落后型。本研究为分析出境旅游流量流向提供新的分析视角,进而为国家旅游业发展中的市场政策制定与旅游产业国际化布局等决策提供理论参考。

Evolutionary characteristics of China's outbound tourism flow in rank-size distribution from 2001 to 2015

The size of China's outbound tourism has expanded rapidly since the mid-1990s, and has presented a remarkably imbalanced distribution between different destinations. This study built a database on China's outbound tourism and destination's inbound tourism between 2001 and 2015, and validated that China's outbound tourists flow is in compliance with the hypothesis of law similar to the rank-size distribution theory. The coupling rank-size relationship between Chinese inbound tourists and the total number of inbound tourists received by the destinations has been divided into 5 types. The results show that the relation of the rank-size distribution of China's outbound tourism is consistent with the law of power function, and gathering to the high-ordered destinations. From 2001 to 2015, both the absolute leading and absolute lagging types exceed 45% of the total number of destinations. The Asian-Pacific countries receiving Chinese tourists are generally in the leading type, with destinations in Europe, America and Middle East lagging behind. Destinations with more tourists are more likely in the absolute lagging type than in the leading type, while those with fewer tourists are more likely in the absolute leading type than in the lagging. This study provides a new perspective for the analysis of outbound travel flow, and could serve as theoretical references for decision-making on market policy formulation and internationalized tourism industry layout.