生态文明建设的路径依赖与互动关系变化——基于2003-2015年长江经济带地级市面板数据

基于路径依赖视角,采集长江经济带108个地级市的2003-2015年面板数据,运用皮尔逊相关系数、回归分析等方法,刻画长江经济带生态文明建设的路径依赖格局和演化,并初步探讨了影响因素与关系变化。结果表明：① 生态文明建设是一个长期且循序渐进的过程,短期内生态文明建设存在着较强路径依赖,80%以上的城市在相邻阶段内结构相似度的相关系数在中等相关以上,各地区应当具有生态文明建设的战略定力。② 生态文明建设要求新型良性互动关系的建立,出现结构锁定的地区在构建自然系统与其他系统的互动关系上要显著落后。在第二阶段与第三阶段,整个长江经济带的自然状态增长率对经济系统增长和社会系统增长的回归系数分别为0.139和0.061,而在结构锁定地区,回归系数则不显著。③ 在不同阶段自然响应（表征资源利用）、经济压力（表征经济增长）、社会响应（表征教育与社会保障）的增长率与结构相似度呈现显著负相关,表明资源利用效率、资金、教育与社会保障的提升可从手段、资金和意识三方面推动形成新型的良性互动关系,有利于突破当前的区域结构锁定。

The path dependence and relationship change of ecological civilization construction: Based on the panel data analysis of prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2015

This paper, from the perspective of path dependence, collected the panel data of 108 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2015. The Pearson correlation coefficient calculation and regression analysis is used to describe the pattern and evolution of path-dependence of ecological civilization in this economic belt. And the influencing factors and changes in relations have been initially discussed. Conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) The construction of ecological civilization is a long-term and gradual process. In the short term, there is a strong path-dependent effect on the construction of ecological civilization, and the correlation coefficient of structural similarity is more than 0.5 in 80% or even more cities. All regions should have the strategic force of ecological civilization construction. (2) The establishment of a new type of benign interaction is required by the construction of ecological civilization. However, it is difficult to establish a benign interaction between the natural system and the economic and social systems at present. In the second and third stages, the regression coefficients of natural state growth rate to economic system growth and social system growth in the whole study region are 0.139^* and 0.061^* respectively, while the regression coefficient is not significant in the lock-in area. The results show that regions where regional lock-in exists are far behind in building the interaction between natural and other systems, and the establishment of a new type of interactive relationship has become an important breakthrough for the path creation of a region. (3) The development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has a significant feature of functional locking and cognitive locking. The growth rate of natural response (characterized by resource utilization), economic pressure (characterized by economic growth) and social response (representation of education and social security) has a significant negative correlation with structural similarity in different stages. This means that the improvement of resources utilization technology, capital, education and social security can help to form a new type of benign interaction from three aspects: means, capital and consciousness, which is conducive to break through the current regional lock-in.