冰冻圈变化对经济社会系统的综合影响及其适应性管理策略

冰冻圈是气候系统影响最直接和最敏感的圈层。在全球变化背景下，冰冻圈变化与生物圈、岩石圈、水圈、大气圈、人类圈之间的相互作用日趋加剧。特别地，冰冻圈快速变化对其影响区经济社会系统产生了广泛而深刻的负面影响，甚至危及人类福祉、经济社会系统的健康、和谐、持续发展。鉴于冰冻圈区位劣势及其较为落后的经济水平，其应对冰冻圈变化的能力极为有限。目前，适应仍然是冰冻圈应对气候变化的主要途径。冰冻圈变化对经济社会系统的综合影响分析是适应冰冻圈快速变化的基础，其适应性管理战略则是减轻冰冻圈快速变化不利影响、降低自然和经济社会系统防御其不利影响脆弱性的最终目标。

Integrated impacts of cryosphere change on the economic and social system and its adaptive management strategies

The cryosphere is the most direct and most sensitive spheres in climate system. In the context of global change, the interaction cryospheric changes with biosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere and anthroposphere increasingly intensified. Especially, the rapid cryosphere changes had also a wide-ranging and profound negative impact on economic and social systems, and even endangered human well-being, and the healthy, harmonious and sustainable development of economic and social systems. Taking into account the geographical disadvantage of cryosphere and its relatively backward economic level, its ability to cope with or resist cryosphere changes is extremely limited. Currently, the adaptation is still the main way to tackle climate change impacts on cryosphere. The analysis of integrated impacts of cryosphere on economic and social system is the basis to adapt to the rapid change of cryosphere, and its adaptive management strategy is the ultimate goal to mitigate the adverse effects of rapid cryosphere changes and reduce the vulnerability for defending the adverse effects from natural, economic and social system