南京城市住宅小区房价增长模式与效应

房价增长与空间分异是近年来各界城市学者高度关注的理论问题,也是关乎城市居民能否实现住有所居和美好生活的现实问题。以南京3761个住宅小区（或居住组团）为研究对象,以2009-2017年间30个季度住宅交易样本数据为基础,探索了南京各类型住宅小区房价增长模式及差异。研究发现：① 南京城市平均房价以1年半为一个阶段,呈现出“快速增长”与“相对平稳”交替规律,房价的空间异质性增强;② 结合住宅小区价格水平、区位特征和建筑属性,综合识别出南京城区9种典型住宅类型;③ 各类型住宅因中心性、舒适性和稀缺性等空间属性差异使房价增长表现为引领型、跟随型、追涨型和独立型等不同模式;④ 城市资源空间配置不均衡作用下的住房供需矛盾和房价增长预期差异,是导致住宅类型间房价分异的根本原因。城市房价增长与住宅价格分化具有必然性,但过快增长和过度分异可能造成阶层家庭财富差距的扩大与再分化、住房负担过重排挤外来中低收入人口、贫困群体因住房置换难度增大而易被困于城市边缘等社会空间后果。因此,有必要强调住宅的居住属性和推进住房供给侧改革,促进城市住宅供给的公平充分和社会空间的健康可持续发展。

Housing price growth in different residences in urban Nanjing: Spatiotemporal pattern and social spatial effect

The growth and spatial differentiation of housing price is a theoretical issue continuously discussed in the field of urban geography, and even a practical problem relating to whether urban residents could realize the goal of living a good life in their own residences. The paper chooses 3761 independent residential districts (or residential clusters) in Nanjing as research objects, and analyzes sample data of 30 quarters in 2009-2017 of each residential district; on this basis, it focuses on the spatial differentiation pattern and evolution process of residential price in Nanjing. It finds that, on the whole, the housing price in Nanjing presents the staged rule of mutually alternative of "fast growth" and "relative stability" in one and a half year; while, high-price residences are mainly in Hexi New Town and the districts of famous schools, as well as high-rise service apartments distributed in inner urban areas, gated communities with landscape at the periphery, and high-grade villas in suburbs. Based on the consideration of the price level, location characteristics and building attributes of residential districts, this paper has comprehensively divided the residences in Nanjing into nine typical types, those are in inner city: (a) the multi-story traditional residences, (b) high-rise apartment residences, and (c) residences within the districts of famous schools; in the peripheral areas: (d) the urban new center residences, (e) landscape-area residences, (f) other gated residences; in the suburbs: g) the residences in core areas of new towns, (h) high-grade villa residences, and i) residences in urban fringe area. The comparison of the price growth process of different residences shows that, a close connection exists between the spatial attribute of residences (centrality, comfort, and scarcity) and the characteristics of housing price growth (rapidity, stability, sustainability). This paper summarizes four models of housing price growth of residences in Nanjing, namely, leading pattern, following pattern, growth-chasing pattern, and independent pattern. In addition, it analyzes the main internal and external driving forces for the differentiation of housing price growth of different types of residences. On this basis, it discusses the deep effects of the rapid and differentiated growth of housing price on the urban social space reconstruction in Nanjing, including enlarging the gap between the rich and the poor, crowding out the middle- and low-income population, solidifying the residential spatial differentiation, etc. The study on the growth of residential housing price and its aftereffects with Nanjing as an example, which is a typical big city in China, would have a certain reference for relevant research on the general fast growth and spatial differentiation of housing prices in China after the global financial crisis in 2008.