基于“规模—密度—形态”的大连市城市韧性评估

以建设安全城市为目标,依据地理学和景观生态思想方法,构建基于“规模—密度—形态”的三维城市韧性研究框架,并对2000-2016年大连市各县市区的城市韧性进行评估。其中规模韧性利用生态基础设施工具进行度量,密度韧性利用生态足迹与生态承载力工具进行度量,形态韧性基于源汇景观平均距离指数进行度量。还对各年份三类韧性的组合形式进行综合评判。本文认为,“规模—密度—形态”三位一体的韧性评估方法可有效识别城市的韧性特征,是建立城市规划与城市韧性研究之间有效联系的纽带。研究发现：① 规模安全是城市空间扩张的基本约束条件;② 生态承载力是城市密度的安全阈值;③ “源—汇”景观的空间耦合是优良城市形态的基本特征;④ 是“规模—密度—形态”三个韧性的组合状况而不是某一单项指标决定城市的安全性。基于规模、密度、形态韧性及其组合特征判定,为未来大连的城市发展提出建议：① 严格限制中心城区与金州区开发强度,遏制其蔓延式增长趋势;② 严格控制海岸带开发,维持山体和绿色植被斑块的完整性;③ 促进市域均衡开发,提升城市整体韧性;④ 优化新市区开发战略,形成良好城市形态。

Evaluation of urban resilience of Dalian city based on the perspective of "Size-Density-Morphology"

Aiming at building a safe city, this study proposed a “Size-Density-Morphology” based three-dimensional urban resilience evaluation framework according to the theories and methods of geography and landscape ecology. By using the framework, the urban resilience of each county in Dalian city during 2000-2016 was evaluated. There are three kinds of urban resilience, namely size resilience, density resilience and morphology resilience. The size resilience could be measured by ecological infrastructure tools; the density resilience could be measured by ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity; the morphology resilience could be measured by "Source-sink" landscape average distance index. In addition, this paper also analyzed the combining forms of the three types of resilience. This study demonstrates that the three-dimension evaluation framework has a unique capacity to identify the resilience characteristics of city, and it is a key bond which creates the connection of urban planning and urban resilience research. Findings are as follows: (1) The size safety is the primary constraint condition for urban spatial expansion. (2) Ecological carrying capacity is the safe threshold for urban density. (3) The spatial coupling of source and sink landscape is a basic feature of good urban morphology. (4) It is the combination of size-density-morphology resilience to determine the safety of the city rather than each single one. According to the analysis of combination characteristics of the "Size-Density-Morphology" resilience, four suggestions were put forward for the development of Dalian city in future. (1) Strictly limit the development intensity of central urban area and Jinzhou district to curb the urban sprawl trend; (2) Strictly control the development of the coastal zone and maintain the integrity of natural mountain and green vegetation patches; (3) Promote the balanced development on a whole city scale to improve the city's overall resilience; (4) Optimizing the development strategy of new urban area in order to form a good urban morphology.