长三角地区制造业结构演化趋势研究

1990年代以来，尤其是浦东开发开放以来，日益推进的全球化和市场化使长三角地区的制造业结构发生了深刻的变化。采用shift—share方法，对1993-2008年16年来长三角及其各次区域31个制造业行业的演进历程进行了考察，发现在未来较长时期内，长三角次区域的产业同构还将继续保持并在一定程度上加强。产业同构将迫使上海率先进行产业升级，从而加速上海与江苏和浙江之间的产业异化过程。未来长三角地区的制造业结构将在沿着从同化到异化的路径行进的过程中实现产业结构的动态演进。

Study on the Structural Evolution of Manufacturing Sector of the Yangtze River Delta Region

Since the 1990s,especially since the development and opening up of Pudong,the increasingly promoted globalization and marketization brought profound changes to the Yangtze River Delta region. In this paper,a shift-share method are introduced to analysis the evolution course of the 31 manufacturing industries in the Yangtze River Delta region and in each sub-region from 1993 to 2008. Conclusions are as follows：firstly,in a long period,the industrial structure of the sub-regions in the Yangtze River Delta will continue to maintain and strengthen similar in a certain extent. Secondly,the similar industrial structure will force Shanghai to upgrade its industrial structure,thusspeeding up the process of industry alienation between Shanghai and Jiangsu and Zhejiang. With the process of moving from assimilation to alienation,the manufacturing structure of the Yangtze River Delta region will continuous dynamic evolution.