| 用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘秀英,刘文平,李阳.用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量[J].山西气象,2002(4):21-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘秀英 刘文平 李阳 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]山西省气象台，山西太原030002 [2]山西省卫星遥感减灾服务中心，山西太原030002 |
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| 摘 要： | 收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。
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| 关 键 词： | 发生期 发生量 棉铃虫 灾害 预测模型 逐步回归分析 最优二分割法 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5732(2002)04-0021-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年1月5日 |
Forecast of occurrence term and amount for bollworm with successive regression |
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| Liu Xiuying,Liu Wenping,Li Yang.Forecast of occurrence term and amount for bollworm with successive regression[J].Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly,2002(4):21-23. |
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| Authors: | Liu Xiuying Liu Wenping Li Yang |
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| Abstract: | This paper divided the occurrence term as 10 grade, 5 grade and no grade 3 kind of conditions by using optimum dichotomy, collected 196 factors about meteorology, the crops, bollworm pest from 1973 to 2000, regarding Yuncheng, Fenyang and Linfen as the representative stations of Shanxi . The paper selected 27 optimum models about the occurrence term and amount of second, third generation bollworm, form the 219 models which were calculated with successive regression. In the agrometeorological service application, the accuracy of forecast is 95% , the effect is good. |
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| Keywords: | bollworm insect pest forecasting model |
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