南疆近60年来洪灾时空变化特征分析

对南疆洪灾时空变化特征进行深入分析。结果表明:①南疆洪灾,在20世纪50~70年代发生频次较低,自1980年开始显著上升。洪灾年内主要集中在3~9月,其中7月频次最多为7.8次。春季发生融雪型洪灾,夏季以暴雨洪灾和暴雨融雪型洪灾为主。②阿克苏和喀什是南疆洪灾频次最多,暴雨洪灾持续时间最长的地区,巴州是暴雨洪灾频次及持续时间增长速度最快的地区。③阿克苏和喀什属于重洪灾区、巴州属于中洪灾区、克州与和田属于轻洪灾区。④洪灾损失随着工农业生产总值的增长而增加,而且增长速度比经济增长速度快,建议加大防洪投入力度,建设控制性水利工程。

The Spatio-temporal Change Characteristics of Flood Disaster in the Southern Xinjiang in Recent 60 Years

The spatio-temporal change characteristics of flood disasters in the southern Xinjiang were analyzed using data of the break-down houses,the total area of disaster-suffered farmland,the economic loss and the total amount of death beast in 1949-2008.The situations of flood disaster in each places of the southern Xinjiang were evaluated using grey correlation disaster evaluating model.The results of the study showed that: 1) The frequency and accumulative durations of flood disaster in the southern Xinjiang were obviously increased.The frequency of flood disaster was low within the 1950s and the 1970s,but increased from 1980s.The flood disaster occurred mainly from March to September each year.The frequency of flood disaster in July was most,which was 7.8 times.The second main month for flood disaster was June,which happened 6 times in June.Flood disaster by snow melt happens in spring,while flood disaster by rain storm,snow melt and rainstorm happens in summer,and flood disaster by ice emphraxis happens in winter.2) The frequency of flood disasters in Aksu and Kashgar were the most,and the duration of flood disaster by rainstorm was the longest.The speed of the increase of flood disaster by rainstorm was fastest.3) The southern Xinjiang could be divided into strong flood disaster area,moderate flood disaster area and slight flood disaster area,thereinto,Aksu and Kashgar were strong flood disaster areas,Bayinholin was moderate flood disaster area and Kizilsu and Hotan were slight flood disaster areas.4) The economic loss from flood disaster was gradually increased with the increase of the total value of industrial and agricultural production,and the speed of the increase of economic loss was faster than the economic increase.The paper suggested that the investment for disaster prevention should be increased,and the disaster relief systems should be established so that to strengthen the disaster prevention and control.