基于系统动力学的资源枯竭型矿业城市产业转型仿真分析——以吉林省辽源市为例

伴随着矿产资源的逐步枯竭,资源枯竭型矿业城市的经济发展面临着诸多困境,产业转型已经迫在眉睫。吉林省辽源市的产业转型取得了良好的效果,被誉为"辽源样本"。基于系统动力学研究方法,通过对系统结构的深入分析,构建辽源市经济系统的SD模型,将CD生产函数嵌入到模型当中,根据辽源市2005-2010年数据进行趋势外推仿真,得到2005-2030年经济系统的若干仿真曲线。结果表明:在2027年辽源市煤炭资源完全枯竭,煤炭产业产值降低为0,但这对其整体经济的扰动很小,辽源市GDP、第二产业产值、接续产业产值、第一产业产值、第三产业产值、其它工业产业产值均呈现快速上升的态势,并且包括人均GDP在内的人均指标亦都将呈现上升的趋势,辽源经济将呈现整体繁荣的局面。

Industry Conversion Simulation Analysis of Resources-exhausted Mining City Based on The System Dynamics:Taking Liaoyuan City of Jilin Province as Example

With the gradual depletion of mineral resources,the economy of resources-exhausted mining city is facing many difficulties,and industrial transformation has been imminent.The industrial transformation of Liaoyuan City has achieved remarkable progress,known as the"Liaoyuan sample".This article establishes the SD model of economic system of Liaoyuan City through analyzing the system structure of the in-depth analysis based on the system dynamics method,and the CD production function is embedded into the model.We conductes the model based on the data of Liaoyuan from 2005 to 2010,a plurality of simulation curves of economic system of Liaoyuan City in 2005-2030 are derived,and the results show that: coal industry production value of Liaoyuan City is reduced to 0 because coal resource would completely dry up in 2027,which however exerts limited perturbation over the economy.Many economic indicators are showing rapid upward trend,including GDP,the output value of the second industry,the output value of the third industry,the output value of continuous industry,the output value of other’s industry.Further,other’s indexes such as the per capita GDP will also show an increasing tendency,the economy of Liaoyuan will present an overall prosperity.