近15年我国气温的变化趋势

利用1998-2012年635个气象站点的观察数据,对我国气温的时空变化趋势及其区域差异进行了分析和突变检验,结果表明：近15年来我国年平均气温呈现波动式下降的特点,但下降趋势不显著；全国绝大部分地区年均和四季气温在0.05显著水平未检测出显著的变化趋势,但Z值显示,气温存在不显著的变化倾向：青藏高原区年均气温存在上升倾向,而其他地区多呈下降倾向；春季气温呈上升和下降倾向的区域约各占一半,夏季绝大部分地区气温有上升倾向,而秋季和冬季大部分地区气温则呈现不显著下降趋势。典型站点的分析发现,显著变暖的站点气温基本都存在暖突变,而显著变冷的站点只有约27%的站气温存在冷突变。暖突变年份主要分布在于2005-2006年,冷突变年份多在2009-2011年。

Trend of temperature during the recent 15 years in China

This study analyzed change trend of mean annual and seasonal temperature and its spatial variation in China, using the meteorological observation data of 635 stations from 1998 to 2012. The results showed that both mean annual and seasonal temperature had a non-significant trend in the most areas, but the test statistic Z was mostly not passed test at the 0.05 significance level. The trend of variation differed apparently over spatial. Annual temperature tended to decline in the most part of China except the Tibet Plateau with a warming trend. In spring, the mean temperature tended to increase in the west part of China while tended to decrease in the most part of eastern China. In summer, it showed a non-significant warming trend while in autumn and winter a cooling trend in the most areas. Abrupt change test at typical stations indicated that the most of stations with a warming trend had an abrupt change in temperature, often happened in 2005 and 2006, while only 27% of stations with a cooling trend had an abrupt change in temperature, normally occurred in 2009, 2010 or 2011.