近60a新疆区域气温降水变化事实分析

利用1961～2017年新疆89个国家级气象观测站57年气温和降水量整编资料,采用一元线性回归进行趋势倾向估计,用最小二乘法反映气候要素的年平均增加、减少速率及年变化趋势。结果表明：新疆及北疆、天山山区、南疆各分区的年和四季平均气温呈现一致的上升趋势,其中新疆年平均升温速率为0.31℃/10a,90年代后期以后出现了明显增暖。冬季升温趋势最明显,夏季最弱。全疆和各分区的年、四季降水量呈现一致的增多趋势,新疆年降水量增加速率为10.14mm/10a。2010年代以来比1960年代增多了30%。冬季降水量增多趋势最明显。1961～2017年新疆气候变化较明显,总体在向暖湿方向变化。

Facts Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change of Xinjiang in Recent 60 Years

Based on the compilation data of temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang during 1976-2017, the trend tendency was estimated by linear regression, and the average annual change rate and trend of climate elements were reflected by least square method. The results showed that: the annual and seasonal average temperatures in Xinjiang, northern Xinjiang, Tianshan Mountains and southern Xinjiang showed a consistent upward trend. The average annual warming rate in Xinjiang was 0.31 C/10a, and there has been a significant warming since the late 1990s. The warming trend was most pronounced in winter and weakest in summer. The annual and seasonal precipitation in all districts showed a consistent increasing trend, and the annual precipitation in Xinjiang increased at a rate of 10.14 mm/10a. Since the 2010s, it has increased by 30% over the 1960s. The trend of increasing precipitation in winter was the most obvious. From 1961 to 2017, climate change in Xinjiang was more obvious, and the overall change was in the direction of warm and humid.