我国沿海地区可持续发展能力的定量研究

区域可持续发展能力是一个综合性指标。文章选取48个变量作为我国东部沿海地区可持续发展能力的原始评价指标,并运用因子分析法对原始评价指标进行降维处理,从而得到能充分反映原始指标信息的5个综合指标。文章根据综合指标的得分值对沿海12个省市区可持续发展能力进行了排序,结合各省市区的地域分布划分出5种可持续发展类型区,并对各类型区可持续发展能力的主要构成因素及其相互关系进行了分析。

A quantitative study on the sustainable development capacity in China's coastal areas

The remarkable economic growth in China's coastal areas over the past twenty years, with an annual average GDP growth rate over 10%, has dramatically raised the standard of living of local people. However, this growth, combined with continued population growth, risen consumption levels, accelerated industrialization and urbanization process, has had a severe impact on the natural resources and environment. The PRED (population, resources, environment and development) problems are likely to restrain the future development of these areas unless they are seriously considered. The purpose of this paper is to assess the sustainable development capacity of the coastal areas which consist of 12 provincial level regions: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi and Hainan. Some 48 indexes in 17 aspects are chosen as the original evaluation variables. Using the factor analysis method, the author reduces the 48 variables to 5 factors: (1) comprehensive economic capacity, social capacity, science and technology innovation capacity; (2) industrial capacity; (3) agricultural capacity; (4) environment supporting capacity; (5) resource supporting capacity. The 5 new comprehensive indexes whose cumulative percent of variance is 86 12% contain the most part of the original variables' information. According to the comprehensive value of the factors, the sort of the regions' sustainable development capacity from high to low is: Shanghai( 1 016 457 ), Beijing( 0 507 079 ), Tianjin( 0 367 455 ), Zhejiang( 0 186 854 ), Guangdong( 0 132 358 ), Fujian( 0 109 803 ), Jiangsu( 0 008 152 ), Shandong( -0 076 96 ), Hebei( -0 255 969 ), Liaoning( -0 542 996 ), Hainan( -0 712 404 ), Guangxi( -0 738 82 ).