张家口地区精细化地震灾害风险评估

本文从地震灾害、建筑物、人口、经济、抗震救灾等多方面出发，将自然属性与社会属性进行有效结合，对地震危险性、建筑物抗震性能等影响因素进行详细分析，构建城镇地震灾害风险评价指标体系，以张家口地区16个县区为例，采用专家-层次分析法，建立精细化地震灾害风险评估模型。研究结果表明，城镇建筑物抗震性能普遍较差，怀来县地震灾害风险最大，桥东区、蔚县、涿鹿县、桥西区次之，沽源县、康保县地震灾害风险最小，并对各县区地震灾害风险主要影响因素进行讨论，发现地震风险指数与地形结构、建筑物抗震性能具有相关性，评估结果可为城镇制定防震减灾规划提供依据。

Refined Risk Assessment of Earthquake Disaster in Zhangjiakou Area

In this paper, from the aspects of earthquake disaster, buildings, population, economy, earthquake relief and other aspects, the natural attributes and social attributes are effectively combined. From the aspects of seismic risk and seismic performance of buildings, the influencing factors of seismic risk and seismic performance of buildings are analyzed in detail, and the urban seismic disaster risk evaluation index system is constructed. For example, the expert analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to establish a refined earthquake disaster risk assessment model. The results show that there is a general deviation in seismic performance of urban buildings. Huailai County has the largest earthquake disaster risk, Qiaodong District, Yuxian County, Zhuolu county and Qiaoxi District take the second place, Guyuan County and Kangbao County have the lowest earthquake disaster risk. The main factors influencing the risk of each county are discussed. The results show that the seismic risk index has correlation with the results of terrain structure and seismic performance of buildings, which reflects the applicability of the evaluation results from the side, which can provide the basis for making earthquake prevention and disaster reduction planning in cities and towns.