地下水资源系统经济管理模型研究

以乌鲁木齐市柴窝堡供水水源地为例，运用系统分析方法和工程技术经济学原理，从水源地地下水可持续开发利用及水资源与社会经济环境协调发展的角度，探讨水源地合理开发与优化管理问题．研究过程中，在分析研究水源地地下水形成与分布规律的基础上，建立了水源地水地质概念模型与地下水流数学模型：利用长序列观测资料，对地下水流数学模型进行了识别与验证．模型识别与验证中，在进行降速场、梯度场两场同时拟合的情况下，又将水均衡分析结果结合起来，提高了模型的仿真性，保证了利用模型进行预测的可靠性．在此基础上，应用响应矩阵法，将最优化模型与模拟模型相耦合，从水源地开发与社会经济环境协调发展的观点出发，以供水净收益最大为目标函数，建立了水源地地下水资源系统经济管理模型．最后，利用有限元方法，对管理模型运行后产生的方案进行了模拟预测，评价了系统地下水的A级允许开采量．

STUDY ON ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MODELS OF GROUNDWATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS

Taking Chaiwopu groundwater source field in Urumqi as an example, using systematical analysis method and engineering technological economics principle, the authors approaches the reasonable exploration and optimal management for durable exploration and utilization of groundwater and keep harmonious development of the water source with society, economic, environment. On the basis of the research of groundwater forming and spreading, the authors established the concept model of hydrogeology and mathematical model for ground water flow. In the calibration and verification of mathematical model for groundwater flow, the long series observation data is the main gist. The authors use the fitting of drawdown velocity field and gradient field at the same time, and apply systematically the lumped parameters model, frequency spectrum analysis and Kriging method. These modern mathematical methods improve the vividness of the model, and ensure the reliability of the forecasting. On the basis of the researches above, using method of response matrix the authors coupled the optimization model and the simulated model and established the groundwater source economic management model which would take maximum profit of supply water as objective function considering the harmonious development between water source and social economical environment. Finally, the author make a eimulated calculation on the program resulted from the running of the management model, and estimates A class allowable withdrawal of groundwater , proves the possibility of further exploration on the water source, and these have important significance on directing proper water exploration and utilization, not only because of its high academic value , but also because of its practical value.