气候变化对河北省海河流域径流量的影响

利用河北省境内海河流域51个气象站、68个水文站1956~2000年近50年的气象、径流量数据,分析了气象要素和径流量的变化规律。河北省境内海河流域多年平均地表径流量为67.0×10⁸m³,从20世纪 50 年代至 90 年代地表径流量呈逐渐减小的趋势,50年代为105.3×10⁸m³,90年代为54.7×10⁸m³。地表径流量随降水量的减少而减小,随气温的升高而下降,用回归方法建立的径流量与气象要素之间的模型为对数模型。根据未来气候变化情景对河北省海河流域径流量的预测:2030年为70.0~76.8×10⁸m³,2050年为69.8~76.9×10⁸m³。

Impact of climatic change on runoff of Haihe River Basin in Hebei Province

Based on the data of climate and runoff from 51 weather stations and 68 hydrologic stations of the Haihe River Basin in Hebei Province from 1956 to 2000, the change of essential climatic factors and runoff are analyzed in this paper. The average annual surface runoff of the Haihe River Basin in Hebei Province is 67.0×10⁸ m³, which decreased from 105.3×10⁸ m³ in the 1950s to 54.7×10⁸ m³ in the 1990s. The runoff reduces with the decrease of the precipitation and the rise of the temperature. The models of essential climatic factors and the runoff established by the multiple regression analysis are logarithmic non-linear functions. Finally, based on the prediction of the future climatic change in 2030 and 2050, the surface runoff of the Haihe River Basin in Hebei Province will be 70.0×10⁸~76.8×10⁸ m³ in 2030 and 69.8×10⁸~76.9×10⁸ m³ in 2050,respectively.