四川省小麦条锈病春季流行的农业气候风险区划

针对当前从气象风险角度开展小麦条锈病与气象关系研究甚少的状况,从农业气象灾害风险分析理论出发,采用相关分析、层次分析和极差正规化等方法,建立了包含气候条件和寄主存在数量两个环境因子的四川省小麦条锈病春季流行农业气候风险模型,并划分了高、中、低风险等级的指标.在此基础上,利用GIS技术对四川省小麦条锈病春季流行的农业气候风险进行了区划.结果表明,四川省的川西高原地区、川西南山地和盆地西南部是小麦条锈病春季流行低风险区,盆地大部地区是中、高风险的集中区.区划结果为进一步做好四川省小麦条锈病的分区预报和综合防治方面提供科学依据.

Agro-climatic Risk Zoning of Wheat Stripe Rust in Spring of Sichuan Province

From the perspective of risk zoning,there was little research on the relationship between wheat stripe rust and meteorological condition method during the past years.Based on the theory of agrometeorological disaster risk,this paper developed the agricultural climate risk model to study wheat stripe rust of Sichuan Province in spring with the help of correlation analysis,AHP and range normalization methods.Coinstantaneously,the model included two environmental factors such as climate condition and the number of host plants.Then the risk index was divided into high,medium and low-grades clearly by using the model.After all,with GIS technology,the spring risk zoning of wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Province was carried out.Finally,t he result showed that,the western Sichuan Plateau,as well as the mountainous area of southwest Sichuan and the southwest basin region belonged to the low risk area.Meanwhile,the high and medium area included the the most of Sichuan basin where the wheat stripe rust happened frequently in spring.This paper supplied theoretical basis for the forecast in subarea and integrated control of wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Province.Based on the conclusion which showed that the risk assessment coincided with the actual situation generally,better services for decision-making to disease pests prevention and reduction could be provided.