气候变化背景下山东大气自净能力特征分析

利用山东22个基本（准）气象站小时气象观测资料，采用A值法计算了山东1961—2017年逐日大气自净能力指数（the atmospheric self-purification capacity index，ASPC），分析了其气候空间分布特征和时间演变规律，利用MK检验（Mann-Kendall检验）和MT检验（Moving-t，滑动t检验）方法对历年ASPC进行了突变检验。结果表明：平均ASPC气候倾向率减小趋势极显著(P<0.01)，除章丘和威海外，其他各地ASPC减小趋势均极显著(P<0.01)；春季各月ASPC较大，历年各月ASPC随时间明显减小；年和四季ASPC空间分布基本一致，半岛地区较大，鲁南等内陆地区相对较小；年和春、夏、秋、冬季ASPC突变年份分别出现在2003年和2006年、2003年、2003年、2005年。济南、青岛地区ASPC分别从1999年、1993年开始显著减小，低ASPC日数历年变化大致与ASPC变化相反；济南和青岛历年各月ASPC变化差异明显。

Spatial-temporal characteristics of the atmospheric self-purification capacity index in the context of climate change in Shandong from 1961 to 2017

Based on the fixed time observation data from 22 basic meteorological stations in Shandong, the daily atmospheric self-purification capacity index (ASPC) from 1961 to 2017 is calculated using A value method, climatic spatial-temporal characteristics are analyzed, and the ASPC mutation test is conducted using Mann-Kendall (MK) mutation test and Moving-t (MT) technique. The results show that the average ASPC presents significant downtrend (P<0.01) and its climate tendency rate is -2.61×104 km2·a-1. The ASPC downtrend in Shandong is remarkable (P<0.01) except in Zhangqiu and Weihai. The monthly ASPC is higher in each month of spring, but with time passing by, it obviously decreases over the years. The annual and seasonal spatial distribution of ASPC is relatively consistent, and it is higher in Shandong Peninsula and lower in inland areas such as the south of Shandong. The annual abrupt change of ASPC appears in 2003, and years of abrupt change of ASPC in spring, summer, autumn, and winter are respectively 2006, 2003, 2003, and 2005. The average ASPC in Jinan and Qingdao has shown significant downtrend (P<0.01) respectively since 1999 and 1993. Annual change of days of low ASPC is roughly opposite to the change of ASPC. Monthly ASPC involves obvious change in Jinan and Qingdao over the years.