基于可靠度的多年冻土区路基稳定性评价及应用分析

通过对多年冻土区道路路基稳定性的分析和研究，从冻土类型、温度、厚度、地质地貌单元以及工程条件5个方面选取了12项对多年冻土区路基稳定影响较大的因素作为评价指标，建立了冻土路基稳定性评价指标体系。基于安全可靠度并考虑各个影响因素之间的关系，运用层次分析法和模糊数学理论确定冻土区路基稳定状况的模糊综合评价模型，提出了基于安全可靠度的用于评价多年冻土区路基稳定的模糊综合评价方法，并结合青藏公路清水河段进行实例分析，结果表明，在该段公路实施热棒处理措施前后，其路基稳定性评价系统可靠度分别为0.48和0.55，与该段公路实际运营过程中路基稳定状态相一致，即由不稳定到稳定，进一步对布设热棒后路基稳定性进行二级模糊综合评价，其评价系统得分为63.74分。

RELIABILITY BASED AHP-FUZZY SYNTHETIC EVALUATION SYSTEM FOR STABILITY OF ROADBEDS IN PERMAFROST REGIONS

Based on research of the stability of roadbeds in permafrost regions, an evaluation system for stability of roadbeds is constructed in this paper. Twelve factors influencing the stability of roadbeds are selected as the evaluation indices. Five aspects are considered in the evaluation system. They are permafrost type, temperature, thickness, geological conditions and project management. The safety reliability and relationships of each factor are considered. The fuzzy synthetic model is built by adopting AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory. And the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method is advanced based on the safety reliability. At last, the case of Qinghai-Tibet highway in Qingshuihe section is calculated and analyzed with the proposed method. The results are consistent with the field observations.