水库诱发地震的最大震级及其发震时间的预测研究

用信息量法和灰色模型法研究了水库诱发地震的最大震级和发震时间．信息量法是对水库地震震例的地震地质因素和标志进行统计，计算它们对诱发地震震级提供的信息量，据信息量的大小判断诱发地震的可能最大震级；灰色模型法是研究水库诱发地震前震的频次随时间的变化，以变化率最大的时间作为最大地震发生的时间．用新丰江和柯依纳水库地震震例资料对信息量法和灰色模型法进行了检验．结果表明，两种模型方法有一定的可行性． 

PREDICTION OF MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE AND ORIGINAL TIME OF RESERVOIR INDUCED SEISMICITY

This paper deals with the prediction of potential maximum magnitude and origi n time for reservoir induced seismicity (RIS).The facter and sign of seismology and geology of RIS has been studies, and the in formation quantity for magnitude of induced seismicity provided by them has bee n calculated. In terms of inf ormation quantity the bigest possible magnitude of RIS is determined. The change s of se ismic frequency with time are studied using grey model method, and the ti me of the biggest change rate is take as original time of the mainshock. The feasib ility of the meth ods for predicting magnitude and time has been tested for the reser voir induced seismicity in the Xin Fengjiang reservoir, China and the Koyna rese rvoir, India.