中国耕地保有量的动力预测模型及对策

围绕如何确保2010年1.2×108hm2的耕地保有量,运用经验模态分解方法分析中国耕地保有量的趋势作为建模依据,构建了中国耕地保有量的动力预测模型,并对中国耕地保有总量现状进行了分析和预测.从建设占用、耕地补充、生态退耕、农业结构调整和灾害损毁五个方面进行单要素分析,在数值模拟的基础上提出高、中、低三种方案,研究结果表明:只有在各方面严格把守的前提下,才有可能实现目标保有量,并且科学的确定生态退耕的数量具有关键意义.

Dynamic Model and Measures of Total Area of Farmland in China

The total area of farmland is decreasing at a rather high speed in recent years in China.The major reasons include: constructional land use,ecologic comeback,agricultural structure adjustment,catastrophic and so on,which will badly affect the food safety in China.By a new national plan,the insurance quantity of cultivated land should be 1.2108hm2 by the year of 2010.The author analyzs that the number of farmland in China will decrease in short time based on the intrinsic model function,and advances several dynamic equations on arable land change,brings forward three projects based on numerical simulation.The result of the study shows: we must adopt the most severe measures,for the aim to nsure quantity of cultivated land of 1.2108hm2.At last,the author presented three suggestions based on the numerical simulation results,which are to enhance the mprehensive plan of land use,to strengthen economical use of land,and to consolidate the management of land use.